Sunday, January 31, 2010

List of SGX Counters Hovering Near 200 SMA



The 200 SMA is used to demarcate bull zone from bear territory. Statistics have indicated that long positions above this line favours the bulls and short positions below this line provide better odds for the bears.

You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames. Yes. weekly charts, daily charts, and intraday (5 min,30 min, 60 min) charts.

The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be astonished at the frequency a stock will reverse in this region.

When writing scans for stocks, you can use this as an additional filter to find potential long setups that are above this line and potential short setups that are below this line.

The list of SGX Counters Hovering Near 200 SMA was an exploration result written in Amibroker Formula Language. Stay alert and be nimble if the counter you are trading appears on the list posted above. Expect high volatile swings as the stock struggles to decide whether to remain as a bull or tranform into a bear and vice versa.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

DJIA Rebound or Breakdown



22 Jan 2009
DJIA plummet stop by the dual support intersection of the green major previous resistance turned support channel and the upper blue channel band.

25 Jan 2009
Inverted hammer faltered after an unsuccessful attempt to breakout above the pink resistance box.

26 Jan 2009
Doji managed to move slightly higher up the pink box.

27 Jan 2009
Potential hammer falls into the green channel but was able to close above the blue channel.

28 Jan 2009
Potential hammer was not confirmed as sudden drop resulted in a breakdown below the upper band of the blue channel.

29 Jan 2009
A flight back to the upper band of the blue channel was shot down and a rapid collapse down into the green channel closed with an inverted hammer.

The first rebound attempt as indicated by the red arrow has failed. The next few days will continue to exhibit high volatility. A breakdown below the milestone 10000 will pulled DJIA towards the 9700 bear zone.

However, if the pink resistance box is taken out by an upthrust wave there is a chance of a second peak forming and probable double top formation.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Capitaland Dead Cat Caught By Net



Falling dead cat caught by 200 SMA safety net but bounce is restricted by light green resistance zone. A breakout above this zone will see the dead cat bounce to the light blue support turned resistance zone followed by 100SMA. Next resistance is the orange resistance zone followed by the gap resistance near 4.20 then the cat roars!

The alluring low RSI and Stochastics are fattening the dead cat and as the dead cat gains weight it may break the 200 SMA safety net and further weakness will test the red support zone. MACD warns of probable faulty safety net. Stay alert and be nimble. When hunting bears sometimes it is wiser to hunt with the bears!

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Bio-treat Potential Bull Flag Formation



Bulls are waving their flag at the intersection of the red channel and the upper portion of the green channel. A successful breakout from the upper red channel resistance boundary confirms the bull flag and will empower a surge towards the light blue resistance zone.

However, if the central internal green channel support line breaks a test of the pink support zone is inevitable. A drop below the green centre inner support line will create a new battle zone at the lower portion of the green channel.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

CapMallsAsia Trailing Dark Clouds


Since topping at 2.74 the Ichimoku dark storm clouds have been trailing the price decline as shown on the hourly chart. No major change in direction is expected as every counter trend up swing will be shorted by lightning strikes as it approaches the storm clouds. There will not be a sunny day for this stock until price can raise above these resistance storm clouds. Extremely high probability of testing 2.23 the low set on the first day trading.

Genting Inverted Hammer Variant Bets


Morning trading unable to clear orange resistance zone. An inverted hammer variant now bets on the pink line for support. Having played a dead cat bounce card this morning a break down from pink line support will see decline towards the green upper channel boundary followed by a test of the blue channel lower support.
However, if in the afternoon good luck appears then the bets taken by this inverted hammer variant will retest the orange resistance once again. High chance of challenging the light blue resistance if the gamble to take out the orange blockade succeeds. An upside breakout above the pink resistance zone is the reward if the dead cat bounce card played turned into an Ace.

Yangzijiang Dead Cat on Deck



Kudos to those who heeded to my warning posted at http://tact888.blogspot.com/2010/01/yangzijiang-triple-divergence.html regarding MACD, RSI and stochastics showing divergence. This was confirmed when the support at the pink zone broke down and headed for the next support at the light blue zone. This double top confirmation support zone was also demolished after an attempt to turn upwards failed.

Now reversal is being tested at the green support zone and the red channel support. A dead cat bounce will meet resistance at the light blue zone and if there is a miracle and the dead cat lives again the next resistance is the 50SMA followed by the pink resistance zone.

However, if the dead cat is truly dead then it will drop to the next orange support zone followed by the blue channel support.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Capitaland Double Top Confirmation



Snapped through the light blue double top confirmation support zone this morning after the hammer variant and the inverted hammer pair formed a 96 pattern formation which failed. Testing green support zone now. Next support is the brown 200 days simple moving average and further weakness will test the red support zone.

Upward resistance at light blue support turned resistance zone followed by 100SMA. Next resistance is the orange resistance zone followed by the gap resistance near 4.20

Monday, January 25, 2010

Olam Inverted Hammer Stalls Triple Top Confirmation



A break down below the light blue support zone will confirm the pink triple top formation. Any rebound here will probably be blocked by the immediate gap resistance at 2.57 or the light green 100 days simple moving average line.

If the inverted hammer is unable to halt the decline and the brown 200 days simple moving average cannot arrest the run away bear expect price to fall towards 2.05 the projected measured move from the the triple top break down.

Sinotel Sandwiched Between the Gaps



A proposed shares placement at 57.55 cents created a gap down to the lavender support zone. This support zone will be heavily defended by the Big Boys to prevent price erosion below the placement offer.

Therefore, a move towards the light blue previous support turned resistance zone seems more likely then a downward drop to cover the lower gap at the dark green support zone.

Price will most probably trade within the green channel towards the light blue resistance zone. However, if the lavender zone support fails the next support is the blue channel lower boundary followed by the dark green support zone.

Jiutian Doji at spring board support



Now testing green channel spring board. A successful rebound above green channel will mount a challenge towards 20 cents and the red channel upper boundary resistance. Immediate support is the green channel support zone. Next support is 16 cents.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Genting Trench Play



More trench warfare expected this week after the bears took out the light blue support zone. The MACD, RSI and Stochastics are showing further weakness. The bears will mark the lower range between the light blue resistance zone and the orange support zone as bear territories. The bulls will make the upper range between the pink resistance zone and the light blue support zone as their playground. Happy Range Trading.

Yanlord Indecisive Doji



Since the collapse of the dome structure the bears have taken residence at Yanlord. Their lease is due for a review tomorrow as indicated by market actions. Bulls and Bears equilibrium resulted in a stalemate indecisive doji.

Those who hunted with the bears may want to cover some of their shorts in case of a dead cat bounce towards 2.00 to 2.05 region. Strong resistance at 2.12 if a dead cat can bounce that high. Higher than the 200 days simple moving average the cat has been resuscitated.

Those braveheart bulls waiting to hunt the bears must stay alert and be nimble. If the immediate doji support fails expect a drop towards 1.80 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break down below the blue channel lower support means the bears have become permanent residents of Yanlord.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

DJIA Dual Channel Spring Board or Diving Board



Zoom Out View stretching from Oct 2007 All Time High Peak





Zoom In View with clearer image showing recent DJIA movement


The blue channel was the spring board that propel DJIA higher during the last four times when it acted both as support and launching pad. High probability that history will be repeated once again for the fifth time. This is reinforced by the closing of the DJIA at the former major resistance turned support green channel upper boundary.
A successful rebound here will see a upward thrust back to the 10400 to 10500 region.

However if this dual trendline support fails and becomes a diving board probable support can be expected at 3 possible locations

1. Near the key psychological milestone of 10000

2. Near the intersection of the lower boundaries of the blue and green channels

3. The worst case the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support. Anything below here means a great Bear is coming !!!

ChinaEratat Testing Spring Board Channel



Dragonfly candlestick taking off from red channel launching pad perhaps? Judging from past experience as shown on the chart an extremely high probabilty that history will be repeated here. A successful take off will target the blue channel as the flight destination.

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