Singapore's Keppel Corporation Ltd, the world's top offshore drilling rig maker, said it plans to build its first drillship despite not having a buyer lined up

Singapore's Keppel Corporation Ltd, the world's top offshore drilling rig maker, said it plans to build its first drillship despite not having a buyer lined up, confident the design will be welcomed by the market.

It is the first time Keppel has built a rig without a contract in at least 14 years, an examination of company announcements showed.

A leading builder of jackup rigs, which work in water depths up to 500 feet (152 metres), Keppel has yet to build a drillship from scratch and has been trying to secure a contract for its own drillship design this year.

South Korea's shipbuilding giants, Samsung Heavy Industries Co Ltd, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co Ltd and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co Ltd, dominate the market for drillships, which are used to explore oil and gas in water up to 12,000-feet deep and cost at least $500 million a piece to build.

Keppel said in a statement that its new design would overcome the constraints of limited deck space found in most drillships. Construction is expected to be completed in 2016.

Keppel had expected to get the order for the drillship by the end of next year, Tong Chong Heong, chief executive officer of Keppel Offshore & Marine, said at a results briefing in October.

Keppel had bagged new orders of S$6.8 billion by late November, and is on track to deliver a record number of rigs this year. But growing competition from Chinese shipyards have put a lot of pressure on the company's profit margins in recent years.

The firm's share price closed at S$10.8 on Wednesday, up 2.4 percent so far this year, outrunning the benchmark Straits Times Index's 3.4 percent decline.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/keppel-drillship-idUSL3N0JR02M20131212?type=companyNews

Keppel Corporation

With a global footprint in over 30 countries, Keppel Corporation leverages its international network, resources and talents to grow its key businesses. It aims to be the Provider of Choice for Solutions to the Offshore & Marine Industries, Sustainable Environment and Urban Living, guided by its key business thrusts of Sustaining Growth, Empowering Lives and Nurturing Communities.

The Keppel Group of Companies includes Keppel Offshore & Marine, Keppel Infrastructure, Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation (Keppel T&T) and Keppel Land, among others.

Keppel Offshore & Marine is the leader in offshore rig design, construction and repair, ship repair and conversion and specialised shipbuilding. Its Near Market, Near Customer strategy is bolstered by a global network of 20 yards and offices in the Asia Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, the Caspian Sea, Middle East and the North Sea regions.

Keppel Infrastructure will drive the Group's strategy to invest in, own and operate competitive energy and related infrastructure. Keppel Infrastructure, while tapping the expertise and technology of its engineering business, will grow its power and gas, environmental and energy efficiency businesses.  Keppel T&T is a leading service provider in the Asia-Pacific and Europe with businesses in logistics and data centres.

Keppel Land contributes to changing cityscapes across Asia as a choice developer with a sterling portfolio of award-winning residential developments, integrated townships and investment-grade commercial properties. Reputed for its quality and innovation hallmark, Keppel Land is committed to develop properties that harmonise with the urban and natural landscape for desirable live-work-play environments and with enduring value for the community.

http://www.kepcorp.com/en/content.aspx?sid=53

Availability Error

Most important human judgments are made under conditions of uncertainty. We use heuristics, or rules of thumb, to guide us in such instances as we try to determine what belief or action has the highest probability of being the correct one in a given situation. These rules of thumb are often instinctive and irrational. Social psychologists such as Thomas Gilovich, Daniel Kahneman, and Amos Tversky have studied several important heuristics and discovered errors associated with their use. One of these heuristics is the availability heuristic, determining probability "by the ease with which relevant examples come to mind" (Groopman 2007: p. 64) or "by the first thing that comes to mind" (Sutherland 1992: p. 11).

The problem with the availability heuristic is that what is available at any given time is often determined by factors that lead to an irrational or erroneous decision. Dr. Jerome Groopman gives the example of a doctor who had treated "scores of patients" over a period of several weeks with "a nasty virus" causing viral pneumonia. Then a patient presented herself with similar symptoms except that her chest x-ray "did not show the characteristic white streaks of viral pneumonia." The doctor diagnosed her as being in the early stages of the illness. He was wrong. Another doctor diagnosed her correctly as suffering from aspirin toxicity. The diagnosis of viral pneumonia was available because of the recent experience of many cases of the illness. Had his recent experience not included so many cases of viral pneumonia it is likely the doctor would have made the right diagnosis. After he realized his mistake, he said "it was an absolutely classic case--the rapid breathing, the shift in her blood electrolytes--and I missed it. I got cavalier."

The stock market is another place where the availability error exemplifies itself. Most people wouldn't think of buying a stock that has recently fallen in value, yet a good way to make money in the market is to buy low and sell high. (It's not the only way, of course. You can make money by earning dividends and holding on to a good stock for a long time or you can do it the way Martha Stewart did with insider information.) Yet, most people will only consider buying a stock if it's doing well, i.e., at a high value. Some people, apparently, buy stock on the advice of their hairdresser or of a stranger who sent them an email. The advice is concrete and readily available, but probably wrong.

http://www.skepdic.com/availability.html

Cross-holdings, management relationships and Asiasons, Blumont and LionGold becoming 'designated' stocks

 'History is one thing. Sometimes new owners take over and they change the colours.'
- Mano Sabnani

 

UNUSUAL share price movements, boardroom battles and cornered markets.

 

If there is one distinctive characteristic among the handful of companies that have been linked to Ipco International and Innopac Holdings - including the three that were suspended by Singapore Exchange (SGX) a week ago - it would be their apparent susceptibility to major disruptions.

 

If history were an airline, that group of companies would be paying mountains in excess baggage fees.

 

On Oct 4, SGX suspended the stocks of Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corp as their shares plunged right out of the gates. SGX allowed trading to resume on Oct 7, but banned short-selling and required upfront cash settlement for those three "designated" stocks.

 

Add to those three companies Ipco, Innopac, the infamous Mid-Continent Equipment Group and Links Island Holdings, now called Manhattan Resources. What you end up with is a network of cross-holdings and management relationships - and a lot of negative headlines.

 

The story starts almost 20 years ago, with a Malaysian wheeler and dealer named John Soh Chee Wen, who was known for having amassed a stable of listed companies on both sides of the Causeway. In Singapore, his vehicles were Ipco and what was then called Inno-Pacific Holdings.

 

The real trouble started in 1998, when rumours began to emerge that Mr Soh - and some of the brokerages he controlled in Malaysia - might be in financial trouble. It reached a point where the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange in January 1998 asked all its brokerages to report their exposure to Mr Soh.

 

Amid those concerns, Ipco in July launched an initial public offering for its Mid-Continent Equipment Group unit. MidCon lasted all of a week before regulators suspended the stock, which was eventually delisted after investigators determined that it had been cornered.

 

In 1999, Mr Soh resigned as managing director Inno-Pacific, then fled as Malaysia put out a warrant for his arrest. He finally returned to Malaysia years later, and eventually pleaded guilty to abetting acts of fraud related to some trades in Malaysia.

 

Without Mr Soh at the front, Ipco came under a highly public boardroom fight by a group of shareholders, who succeeded in replacing the board in 1999. Four years later, Ipco's board would come under another attack, but would prevail.

 

In early 2000, a company called Links Island Holdings launched its IPO. Six months later, that stock was also suspended on what was eventually found to be a case of share manipulation. It then emerged that Inno-Pacific, through a subsidiary, was the sixth-largest shareholder in Links Island.

 

A year later, Inno-Pacific had its own boardroom battle, with a number of investors who had links with Mr Soh joining the successful bid to replace Inno-Pacific's directors.

 

Back to the present and the three "designated" companies.

 

Those three companies are linked to Ipco and Innopac through numerous cross-holdings.

 

Beyond those investment holdings, Ipco company secretary Lynn Ng Su Ling is also non-executive independent director at LionGold and Blumont.

 

Jared Lim Chih Li, managing director of LionGold substantial shareholder Asiasons Capital, is also married to Dian Lee. Ms Lee runs Clear Water Developments Sdn Bhd, which is a substantial shareholder of Blumont and Innopac.

 

Regardless of whether those connections are pure coincidence, the market appears to perceive a correlation. Consider the number of trading queries that have been issued by SGX so far this year.

 

Between Jan 1 and Oct 4 this year, the seven companies mentioned so far, plus Asiasons Capital associate ISR Capital, formed 10 per cent of all the companies queried by SGX, but accounted for 18 per cent - or 16 out of 88 - of queries made.

 

Such a history can be offputting for some investors.

 

"There are some people, they avoid them," said investor Mano Sabnani. "I know there are value investors where they simply don't touch companies that they think are risky."

 

But Mr Sabnani said that investors should assess every investment based on fundamentals as well as their own risk appetites.

 

"As an investor you have to look at your own risk appetite," he said. "Are you looking for yield, are you looking for growth? Every stock, every investment has to be carefully studied."

 

History can offer some background, but circumstances can also change.

 

"History is one thing," he said. "Sometimes new owners take over and they change the colours."

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/brokeragesreport/0f4qkg-HAIg

 

LionGold to buy, process gold waste in Ghana

LionGold, the mining company which had billions of dollars wiped off its value last month after its shares plummeted, said yesterday that its Ghana unit has signed a deal with an Australian-registered firm to buy materials left behind from old gold mining operations and reprocess them to recover additional minerals.

LionGold’s Owere Mines will buy a minimum of one million dry metric tonnes of gold-bearing waste tailings from B&C Gold over three years, it said in a statement. Income generated from the gold produced will be used to fund further exploration activities at a mine in Ghana.

“Our agreement with B&C signifies LionGold’s commitment in developing our gold mining assets organically and would jump-start production and fully utilise existing facilities at our subsidiary, Owere Mines.

“While doing our part in improving Ghana’s environment, income generated through the production of gold from purchased tailings would also fund exploration activities at our ... Konongo Gold Project,” LionGold Group Chief Executive Nicholas Ng said.

Gold-bearing waste tailings are materials which remain from old gold mining operations. They may pose a threat to the environment and the health of nearby communities if the waste leaches into groundwater.

B&C has an environmental clean-up agreement to remove all gold-bearing waste tailings from river and stream systems in land owned by two local councils.

It will be responsible for all costs and approvals associated with the mining, extraction, blending and delivery of the tailings to Owere Mines, which in turn will pay the Australian-registered firm an aggregate price based on several factors, including the amount of dry tonnes delivered and grade of the tailings.

The tailings may be able to yield about 2,550kg of gold over the three years, LionGold said. Production is scheduled to begin in March next year.

LionGold’s shares closed little changed at S$0.177 yesterday, clawing back slightly from the more than four-year low of S$0.144 on Oct 17. That is still far below the S$1.51 level seen on Oct 3, a day before the miner and two other counters were suspended by the Singapore Exchange after sharp declines in their stock prices erased S$8.6 billion in market value over three days.

They were later allowed to resume trading as “designated securities”, implying that there could have been manipulation or excessive speculation.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/liongold-buy-process-gold-waste-ghana

The Real Story Behind Blumont, Asiasons And LionGold

Last Friday, three shares – Blumont Group (SGX: A33), Asiasons Capital (SGX: 5ET), and LionGold Corp (SGX: A78) – were suspended from trading by the Singapore Stock Exchange after experiencing falls of 40% to 60% that were preceded by rapid increases in their share prices.

Since then, the trading suspensions have been lifted. But, the carnage has continued. As of Tuesday’s close, Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold have dropped 94%, 96%, and 87% respectively from their closing prices on last Thursday.

While investors might be wondering what really transpired behind the scenes to cause the three shares to plunge, the real story can be traced back to 2007.

A painful loss

The debacle involving those three shares prompted a friend of mine to share with me a digital newspaper clipping that was published on The New Paper back in Oct 2007.

The story was about a lady named Dawn Zeng who had lost S$55,000 while speculating on penny stock Uni-Asia Finance (SGX: C3T). She bought the stock on a tip that it was “hot”, and “didn’t know anything about [the company].”

She bought 50,000 shares of the company at a price of S$2.20 on a contra-trade, which meant that she would not be required to pay for the shares until three days later. Her initial plan was to sell those shares within those three days, hoping to make a profit on the expectation that Uni-Asia’s shares would continue to rocket.

The company went public on August 2007 at an offering price of S$0.55 but had quadrupled in value to a high of S$2.79 by 15 Oct 2007. Its sharp ascent was what made it “hot” and attracted speculators like Zeng.

But the fundamentals of the company weren’t robust enough to sustain those share prices and soon enough, it fell to a low of S$1.00 on 25 Oct 2007.

In the interim, Zeng was forced to sell her shares at S$1.10, booking a total loss of S$60,000. She had to pay-off that sum of money with five years’ worth of savings that she and her finance had accumulated. Even their upcoming wedding on Feb 2008 had to be postponed as their savings had been wiped out.

And all that happened because of a single speculative bet that went wrong.

The lessons to be drawn

So there we have it, Zeng’s story with speculation that ended on a sorry note. And if we dig in further, there are strong parallels to be drawn with what happened to Uni-Asia and the trio of Blumont, Asiasons, and LionGold.

There was the strong price ascent prior to their share price collapse: Uni-Asia’s share price gained 407% in two short months; Blumont was at six cents on Aug 2012, and had hit a high of S$2.45 (an increase of 3980%) barely a year later on 30 Sep 2013; Asiasons’ price grew 197% in just nineteen days from 1 Sep 2013 to 19 Sep 2013; LionGold had increased in value by 50% from 1 Aug 2013 to 27 Aug 2013.

Then, there were the stretched valuations that these shares had. Uni-Asia was valued at 39 times its historical earnings at its peak of S$2.79; Blumont was selling for 500 times its trailing earnings and 60 times its book value at some point prior to its collapse; Asiasons carried a price-earnings ratio of 583 before last Friday’s shellacking; as a company, LionGold did not even have any profits to speak of for its last 12 months and yet carried a market value of S$1.42b on last Thursday.

So, we can see that six years ago there was a company – carrying an inflated share price that’s hard to justify with its business fundamentals – that collapsed suddenly in price after a sharp run-up. What happened with Blumont, Asiasons, and LionGold is not new.

While there can be many technical reasons for the collapse in share prices for those four companies – conspiracy theorists might even point to price manipulation – I’ve written before that “there are times when it will be obvious that a share price is over inflated. In cases like that, the simple solution is to just walk away.”

But for an investor to just simply “walk away” there has to be the recognition that over the long-term share prices are driven by the fundamentals of the business. And that, is the real story behind Blumont, Asiasons, and LionGold.

It was very likely that there were market participants who bought into the shares of the trio while blindfolded, betting on a price increase simply because its price has risen before. There was simply no recognition of the fact that the fundamentals of a business are what sustains the price of a share over the long-term.

Blind-betting might work for some, but it’ll likely end up in disaster for many, with Zeng being just one such example.

Foolish Bottom Line

Investors have to realise that over the long-term, the shares of a company are only worth as much as the aggregate amount of profits and cash flows that its businesses can make over its life-time. Without strong fundamentals – competitive positions, cash flows, profits, assets, dividends etc. – there’s no way high share prices can be sustained.

It’s a message you might find me repeating many times over here at The Motley Fool Singapore. But I’ll run the risk of sounding like a broken radio. It really is a message that’s worth harping on, and on, and on….

http://www.fool.sg/2013/10/09/the-real-story-behind-blumont-asiasons-and-liongold/

LionGold

LionGold Corp Ltd has rapidly established itself in the global gold mining industry and now holds 7.5 million ounces of gold resources, with 900,000 ounces classified as reserves. Since March 2012, interests in eight gold exploration and mining companies have been acquired, of which one wholly-owned subsidiary is in production. Primary concessions are in Australia, Ghana, Bolivia, and Canada.

Our focus will remain, to raise gold resources to 10 million ounces, reserves to 2 million ounces, and production to 200,000 ounces per annum by the end of 2014, through acquisitions and organic growth.

LionGold Corp Limited has rapidly established itself in the global gold mining industry and now holds 7.5 million ounces of gold resources, with 900,000 ounces classified as reserves. Since March 2012, interests in eight gold exploration and mining companies have been acquired, of which one wholly-owned subsidiary is in production. Primary concessions are in Australia, Ghana and Bolivia, and Canada. Future expansion will be achieved through further acquisitions and organic growth.

The Group aims to become a global gold producer and is initially targeting minimum gold resources of 10 million ounces, reserves of 2 million ounces, and annual production of 200,000 ounces per annum by the end of 2014. Acquisition prospects today will have scalable resources with scope for rapid enhancement. Targets include mining companies and projects across a range of geographies which are in production, or which are poised to start commercial production within 12 to 18 months. The intention behind this selective approach is to unlock asset value while building out the gold business.

http://www.liongoldcorp.com/about-us/corporate-profile/